Rextie Business released an analysis on March 23 regarding the performance of the U.S. dollar in Peru during the week of March 16. The report notes that the exchange rate closed at S/ 3.4200 on Monday and rose to S/ 3.4850 by Friday, showing significant volatility and an upward trend.
The analysis highlights that external factors played a major role in this movement, including rising tensions in the Middle East, statements from Donald Trump, and decisions by major central banks. Oil prices surpassed US$110 per barrel, while gold and silver experienced corrections. This environment increased global demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset, with the DXY index nearing 99.9 points.
Internationally, Rextie Business said that the United States Federal Reserve kept its interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75% during its March meeting as expected by markets. However, projections from the Federal Open Market Committee indicate gradual rate cuts of 25 basis points are anticipated for both 2026 and 2027.
Ongoing high interest rates in the United States continue to strengthen the dollar by attracting capital flows into assets denominated in this currency. Additionally, ongoing tensions among the U.S., Iran, and Israel—especially around the Strait of Hormuz—have affected nearly one-fifth of global oil supply, raising crude oil and gas prices and increasing inflationary pressures along with risk aversion in financial markets.
Locally in Peru, these international factors combined with domestic variables such as local demand for dollars, political uncertainty, and energy dependence pushed up exchange rates into a range between S/ 3.45–S/ 3.49 last week.
Peru’s macroeconomic data showed growth of approximately 3.4% in gross domestic product for calendar year 2025 due largely to private spending as well as activity within construction, commerce, services sectors alongside strong performances from agriculture and primary manufacturing linked to export demand. For this year (2026), Peru’s Central Reserve Bank projects GDP growth between three percent (3%) and three point two percent (3.2%), though it cautions that uncertainty remains high globally.
Looking ahead at upcoming sessions on foreign exchange markets within Peru will depend greatly upon developments related to conflict escalation or de-escalation across Middle Eastern regions: “A scenario involving de-escalation could reduce risk aversion while pushing downwards pressure onto exchange rates; conversely if uncertainty persists amid global inflationary context then strength may remain with U.S.-denominated currency.” Rextie Business expects volatility will persist over coming days with rates likely fluctuating between S/ 3.44–S/ 3.47.
