Bbva Research has released its comprehensive economic outlook for Peru as of March 2025, detailing projections on growth, fiscal balance, external sector performance, inflation, and key risks.
The report outlines that Peru’s economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 3.1%, supported by higher growth in the United States and China, increased investment, and favorable weather conditions. According to Bbva Research, private spending is expected to remain strong due to business confidence and easing financial conditions. New mining and infrastructure projects are also anticipated to boost activity across sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, mining, construction, and trade.
The fiscal deficit widened in 2024 to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) due to lower revenues but is projected to decline to 2.4% in 2025 with higher metal prices and revenues. Public debt remains low at around 32.7% of GDP and is expected to stay below 36% by 2030. The report notes that medium-term fiscal consolidation will require increases in revenue and moderation of spending amid risks from pension reforms and regulatory changes.
Peru’s trade surplus remains high due to elevated metal prices and export volumes but is expected to decline slightly in 2026. The current account stays in surplus, driven by trade and primary income flows. External reserves are described as healthy with net international reserves around 27-28% of GDP.
The sol has appreciated in early 2025 because of external surpluses, high commodity prices, and investor flows; however, volatility persists. The exchange rate is forecasted to end the year between 3.65-3.75 soles per U.S. dollar with further strengthening possible in 2026. Inflation remains within the Central Bank’s target range at a projected rate of about 2.5% for the end of the year.
Risks identified include global demand slowdown, trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, supply shocks externally; domestically there are concerns over political uncertainty, social conflicts, regulatory changes, and project delays.
